How to compare tennis players by surface
A player's overall record hides a lot. The same player can hold serve almost every time on grass and struggle to on slow clay. Here is how to compare two players surface by surface without being fooled by small samples.
In short
Compare players on the same surface and period, starting with hold and break and then serve and return points won. Trust a difference only once a player has ten or more matches on that surface, and check the level of the opponents. The worked example shows how Sinner and Alcaraz differ on hard courts and why Alcaraz's clay numbers say less.
Figures from our archive of 77,625 matches, updated 22 Oct 2026.
1. Start with hold and break
Hold % is the share of service games a player wins; break % the share of return games. Together they describe how a match is likely to go: a player who holds 90% and breaks 30% wins far more sets than one who holds 80% and breaks 20%. On fast courts hold rates rise for almost everyone, so always compare players on the same surface, not across surfaces.
2. Look one level deeper: points won on serve and return
Games are made of points, and points are steadier than games. Serve points won plus return points won is a compact summary of strength: around 100 is a tour-average player, every point above that is a real edge. The dominance ratio (return points won divided by serve points lost) says the same thing in one number; above 1.00 means winning more return points than losing serve points.
3. Check the sample size
Ten matches on a surface is a small sample; thirty is a reasonable one. Fewer than ten, and a single good week can swing the numbers. Also check who the matches were against: results at Challenger level are not the same as results at Grand Slams.
Worked example: Sinner and Alcaraz
Figures from our archive for the 52 weeks to 9 October 2026:
| Matches | Hold | Break | Serve pts won | Return pts won | Aces | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinner · hard | 21 (19–2) | 94.1% | 26.9% | 73.6% | 39.8% | 16.4% |
| Alcaraz · hard | 29 (26–3) | 88.3% | 29.8% | 67.9% | 41.7% | 5.4% |
| Sinner · clay | 19 (18–1) | 91.2% | 36.1% | 70.9% | 44.1% | 8.1% |
| Alcaraz · clay | 6 (5–1) | 84.2% | 42.4% | 63.4% | 46.0% | 5.2% |
On hard courts the two are built differently: Sinner's edge is on serve (94% of service games held, aces on one serve point in six), Alcaraz's on return (more return points and return games won). Both add up to well above 100 on serve plus return points (Sinner 113.4, Alcaraz 109.6).
On clay Alcaraz's return numbers look even better, but they come from only six matches, so they say much less than Sinner's nineteen. This is exactly where the sample-size check matters.
See the live comparison of Sinner and Alcaraz ↗ · choose any period and surface, or any other two players.
Quick checklist
- Compare on the same surface and over the same period.
- Hold and break first, then serve and return points won.
- At least ten matches on the surface before trusting a difference; thirty is better.
- Look at the level of the opponents and the date of the latest match.